Exploring the effect of clinical case definitions on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimation at primary care level: Results from the end-of-season 2022-23 VEBIS multicentre study in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Within influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies at primary care level with a laboratory-confirmed outcome, clinical case definitions for recruitment of patients can vary. We used the 2022-23 VEBIS primary care European multicentre study end-of-season data to evaluate whether the clinical case definition affected IVE estimates. METHODS: We estimated VE using a multicentre test-negative case-control design. We measured VE against any influenza and influenza (sub)types, by age group (0-14, 15-64, ≥65 years) and by influenza vaccine target group, using logistic regression. We estimated IVE among patients meeting the European Union (EU) acute respiratory infection (ARI) case definition and among those meeting the EU influenza-like illness (ILI) case definition, including only sites providing information on specific symptoms and recruiting patients using an ARI case definition (as the EU ILI case definition is a subset of the EU ARI one). RESULTS: We included 24 319 patients meeting the EU ARI case definition, of whom 21 804 patients (90 %) meet the EU ILI case definition, for the overall pooled VE analysis against any influenza. The overall and influenza (sub)type-specific VE varied by ≤2 % between EU ILI and EU ARI populations. DISCUSSION: Among all analyses, we found similar VE estimates between the EU ILI and EU ARI populations, with few (10%) additional non-ILI ARI patients recruited. These results indicate that VE in the 2022-23 influenza season was not affected by use of a different clinical case definition for recruitment, although we recommend investigating whether this holds true for next seasons.

Vaccine effectiveness against influenza hospitalisation in adults during the 2022/2023 mixed season of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B circulation, Europe: VEBIS SARI VE hospital network.

We conducted a multicentre hospital-based test-negative case-control study to measure vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-confirmed influenza in adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the 2022/2023 influenza season in Europe. Among 5547 SARI patients ≥18 years, 2963 (53%) were vaccinated against influenza. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 11% (95% CI: -23-36); 20% (95% CI: -4-39) against A(H3N2) and 56% (95% CI: 22-75) against B. During the 2022/2023 season, while VE against hospitalisation with influenza B was >55%, it was ≤20% for influenza A subtypes. While influenza vaccination should be a priority for future seasons, improved vaccines against influenza are needed.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe: Results from the 2022-2023 VEBIS (Vaccine Effectiveness, Burden and Impact Studies) primary care multicentre study.

Background: Influenza A(H3N2) viruses dominated early in the 2022-2023 influenza season in Europe, followed by higher circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses. The VEBIS primary care network estimated the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) using a multicentre test-negative study. Materials and Methods: Primary care practitioners collected information and specimens from patients consulting with acute respiratory infection. We measured VE against any influenza, influenza (sub)type and clade, by age group, by influenza vaccine target group and by time since vaccination, using logistic regression. Results: We included 38 058 patients, of which 3786 were influenza A(H3N2), 1548 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 3275 influenza B cases. Against influenza A(H3N2), VE was 36% (95% CI: 25-45) among all ages and ranged between 30% and 52% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H3N2) clade 2b was 38% (95% CI: 25-49). Overall, VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 46% (95% CI: 35-56) and ranged between 29% and 59% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 clade 5a.2a was 56% (95% CI: 46-65) and 79% (95% CI: 64-88) against clade 5a.2a.1. VE against influenza B was 76% (95% CI: 70-81); overall, 84%, 72% and 71% were among 0-14-year-olds, 15-64-year-olds and those in the influenza vaccination target group, respectively. VE against influenza B with a position 197 mutation of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was 79% (95% CI: 73-85) and 90% (95% CI: 85-94) without this mutation. Conclusion: The 2022-2023 end-of-season results from the VEBIS network at primary care level showed high VE among children and against influenza B, with lower VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2).

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Alpha- and Delta-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021.

IntroductionTwo large multicentre European hospital networks have estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 since 2021.AimWe aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients ≥ 20 years, combining data from these networks during Alpha (March-June)- and Delta (June-December)-dominant periods, 2021.MethodsForty-six participating hospitals across 14 countries follow a similar generic protocol using the test-negative case-control design. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) as two doses of a two-dose or one of a single-dose vaccine ≥ 14 days before onset.ResultsWe included 1,087 cases (538 controls) and 1,669 cases (1,442 controls) in the Alpha- and Delta-dominant periods, respectively. During the Alpha period, VE against hospitalisation with SARS-CoV2 for complete Comirnaty PSV was 85% (95% CI: 69-92) overall and 75% (95% CI: 42-90) in those aged ≥ 80 years. During the Delta period, among SARI patients ≥ 20 years with symptom onset ≥ 150 days from last PSV dose, VE for complete Comirnaty PSV was 54% (95% CI: 18-74). Among those receiving Comirnaty PSV and mRNA booster (any product) ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose, VE was 91% (95% CI: 57-98). In time-since-vaccination analysis, complete all-product PSV VE was > 90% in those with their last dose < 90 days before onset; ≥ 70% in those 90-179 days before onset.ConclusionsOur results from this EU multi-country hospital setting showed that VE for complete PSV alone was higher in the Alpha- than the Delta-dominant period, and addition of a first booster dose during the latter period increased VE to over 90%.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Omicron-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021 to 2022.

IntroductionThe I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS hospital networks have been measuring COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in participating European countries since early 2021.AimWe aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in patients ≥ 20 years hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from December 2021 to July 2022 (Omicron-dominant period).MethodsIn both networks, 46 hospitals (13 countries) follow a similar test-negative case-control protocol. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) and first booster dose vaccination as last dose of either vaccine received ≥ 14 days before symptom onset (stratifying first booster into received < 150 and ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose). We measured VE overall, by vaccine category/product, age group and time since first mRNA booster dose, adjusting by site as a fixed effect, and by swab date, age, sex, and presence/absence of at least one commonly collected chronic condition.ResultsWe included 2,779 cases and 2,362 controls. The VE of all vaccine products combined against hospitalisation for laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 43% (95% CI: 29-54) for complete PSV (with last dose received ≥ 150 days before onset), while it was 59% (95% CI: 51-66) after addition of one booster dose. The VE was 85% (95% CI: 78-89), 70% (95% CI: 61-77) and 36% (95% CI: 17-51) for those with onset 14-59 days, 60-119 days and 120-179 days after booster vaccination, respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that, during the Omicron period, observed VE against SARI hospitalisation improved with first mRNA booster dose, particularly for those having symptom onset < 120 days after first booster dose.

Interventions to Facilitate Return to Work after Stroke: A Systematic Review.

PURPOSE: To gather knowledge about effective return to work interventions for survivors of stroke. METHODS: A database search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Scopus, and Web of Science using keywords and medical subject headings. Studies were included if they met the following criteria: (i) studies published in English since the year 2000; (ii) adult patients aged 18-65 with a primary diagnosis of stroke; (iii) working pre-stroke; and (iv) intervention in which one of the primary outcomes is return to work. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed and the evidence synthesised. RESULTS: Twelve studies were included, of which three were randomised controlled trials, four were retrospective studies, one was a cohort study, one was an explorative longitudinal study, one was a pre-post treatment observation study and two were pilot studies. The employment rate at follow-up ranged from 7% to 75.6%. Overall, there was limited published evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions to promote return to work for this population, and it was unclear if return to pre-stroke work was the goal. CONCLUSION: A lack of large, controlled trials, variations in follow-up time and the definitions of return to work accounted for the large range of employment rates at follow-up. There is limited published high-quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions to promote return to work in working-age survivors of stroke.

COVID-19 incidence and outcome by affluence/deprivation across three pandemic waves in Ireland: A retrospective cohort study using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Since the pandemic onset, deprivation has been seen as a significant determinant of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. This study explores outcomes of COVID-19 in the context of material deprivation across three pandemic waves in Ireland. METHODS: Between 1st March 2020 and 13th May 2021, 252,637 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases were notified in Ireland. Cases were notified to the national Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting (CIDR) system. Each case was geo-referenced and assigned a deprivation category according to the Haase-Pratschke (HP) Deprivation Index. Regression modelling examined three outcomes: admission to hospital; admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and death. RESULTS: Deprivation increased the likelihood of contracting COVID-19 in all age groups and across all pandemic waves, except for the 20-39 age group. Deprivation, age, comorbidity and male gender carried increased risk of hospital admission. Deprivation was not a factor in predicting ICU admission or death, and diagnosis in wave 2 was associated with the lowest risk of all three outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that COVID-19 spreads easily through all strata of society and particularly in the more deprived population; however this was not a consistent finding. Ireland is ethnically more homogenous than other countries reporting a larger deprivation gradient, and in such societies, structural racial differences may contribute more to poor COVID outcomes than elements of deprivation.

Establishing severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance in a sentinel hospital, Ireland, 2021 to 2022.

BackgroundIn 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) accelerated development of European-level severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance.AimWe aimed to establish SARI surveillance in one Irish hospital as part of a European network E-SARI-NET.MethodsWe used routine emergency department records to identify cases in one adult acute hospital. The SARI case definition was adapted from the ECDC clinical criteria for a possible COVID-19 case. Clinical data were collected using an online questionnaire. Cases were tested for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), including whole genome sequencing (WGS) on SARS-CoV-2 RNA-positive samples and viral characterisation/sequencing on influenza RNA-positive samples. Descriptive analysis was conducted for SARI cases hospitalised between July 2021 and April 2022.ResultsOverall, we identified 437 SARI cases, the incidence ranged from two to 28 cases per week (0.7-9.2/100,000 hospital catchment population). Of 431 cases tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, 226 (52%) were positive. Of 349 (80%) cases tested for influenza and RSV RNA, 15 (4.3%) were positive for influenza and eight (2.3%) for RSV. Using WGS, we identified Delta- and Omicron-dominant periods. The resource-intensive nature of manual clinical data collection, specimen management and laboratory supply shortages for influenza and RSV testing were challenging.ConclusionWe successfully established SARI surveillance as part of E-SARI-NET. Expansion to additional sentinel sites is planned following formal evaluation of the existing system. SARI surveillance requires multidisciplinary collaboration, automated data collection where possible, and dedicated personnel resources, including for specimen management.

Immunocompromise among vaccinated versus unvaccinated COVID-19 cases admitted to critical care in Ireland, July to October 2021.

As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, so too did the proportion of cases admitted to critical care in Ireland who were fully vaccinated. Reporting of this observation has public health implications as incorrect interpretation may affect public confidence in COVID-19 vaccines. A potential explanation is the reduced ability of those who are immunocompromised to produce an adequate, sustained immune response to vaccination. We conducted an analysis of the association between COVID-19 vaccination status and underlying degree of immunocompromise among a cohort of critical care patients all with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 admitted to critical care between July and October 2021. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate an odds ratio of immunocompromise among vaccinated COVID-19 cases in critical care compared to unvaccinated cases. In this study, we found a statistically significant association between the vaccination status of severe COVID-19 cases requiring critical care admission and underlying immunocompromise. Fully vaccinated patients were significantly more likely to be highly (OR = 19.3, 95 % CI 7.7-48.1) or moderately immunocompromised (OR = 9.6, 95 % CI 5.0-18.1) compared to unvaccinated patients with COVID-19. These findings support our hypothesis, that highly immunocompromised patients are less likely to produce an adequate and sustained immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, and are therefore more likely to require critical care admission for COVID-19 infection.

An intercountry comparison of the impact of the paediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme across the UK and the Republic of Ireland (ROI), 2010 to 2017.

Background: The universal paediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme commenced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013/2014. Since 2014/2015, all pre-school and primary school children in Scotland and Northern Ireland have been offered the vaccine. England and Wales incrementally introduced the programme with additional school age cohorts being vaccinated each season. The Republic of Ireland (ROI) had no universal paediatric programme before 2017. We evaluated the potential population impact of vaccinating primary school-aged children across the five countries up to the 2016/2017 influenza season. Methods: We compared rates of primary care influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations, confirmed influenza intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and all-cause excess mortality using standardised methods. To further quantify the impact, a scoring system was developed where each weekly rate/z-score was scored and summed across each influenza season according to the weekly respective threshold experienced in each country. Results: Results highlight ILI consultation rates in the four seasons' post-programme, breached baseline thresholds once or not at all in Scotland and Northern Ireland; in three out of the four seasons in England and Wales; and in all four seasons in ROI. No differences were observed in the seasons' post-programme introduction between countries in rates of ICU and excess mortality, although reductions in influenza-related mortality were seen. The scoring system also reflected similar results overall. Conclusions: Findings of this study suggest that LAIV vaccination of primary school age children is associated with population-level benefits, particularly in reducing infection incidence in primary care.

Effect of neuraminidase inhibitor (oseltamivir) treatment on outcome of hospitalised influenza patients, surveillance data from 11 EU countries, 2010 to 2020.

BackgroundTimely treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors (NAI) can reduce severe outcomes in influenza patients.AimWe assessed the impact of antiviral treatment on in-hospital deaths of laboratory-confirmed influenza patients in 11 European Union countries from 2010/11 to 2019/20.MethodsCase-based surveillance data from hospitalised patients with known age, sex, outcome, ward, vaccination status, timing of antiviral treatment, and hospitalisation were obtained. A mixed effect logistic regression model using country as random intercept was applied to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for in-hospital death in patients treated with NAIs vs not treated.ResultsOf 19,937 patients, 31% received NAIs within 48 hours of hospital admission. Older age (60-79 years aOR 3.0, 95% CI: 2.4-3.8; 80 years 8.3 (6.6-10.5)) and intensive care unit admission (3.8, 95% CI: 3.4-4.2) increased risk of dying, while early hospital admission after symptom onset decreased risk (aOR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.90-0.93). NAI treatment initiation within 48 hours and up to 7 days reduced risk of dying (0-48 hours aOR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.45-0.59; 3-4 days 0.59 (0.51-0.67); 5-7 days 0.64 (0.56-0.74)), in particular in patients 40 years and older (e.g. treatment within 48 hours: 40-59 years aOR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.28-0.66; 60-79 years 0.50 (0.39-0.63); ≥80 years 0.51 (0.42-0.63)).ConclusionNAI treatment given within 48 hours and possibly up to 7 days after symptom onset reduced risk of in-hospital death. NAI treatment should be considered in older patients to prevent severe outcomes.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A subtypes in Europe: Results from the 2021-2022 I-MOVE primary care multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: In 2021-2022, influenza A viruses dominated in Europe. The I-MOVE primary care network conducted a multicentre test-negative study to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). METHODS: Primary care practitioners collected information on patients presenting with acute respiratory infection. Cases were influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09 RT-PCR positive, and controls were influenza virus negative. We calculated VE using logistic regression, adjusting for study site, age, sex, onset date, and presence of chronic conditions. RESULTS: Between week 40 2021 and week 20 2022, we included over 11 000 patients of whom 253 and 1595 were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 75% (95% CI: 43-89) and 81% (95% CI: 45-93) among those aged 15-64 years. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 29% (95% CI: 12-42) and 25% (95% CI: -41 to 61), 33% (95% CI: 14-49), and 26% (95% CI: -22 to 55) among those aged 0-14, 15-64, and over 65 years, respectively. The A(H3N2) VE among the influenza vaccination target group was 20% (95% CI: -6 to 39). All 53 sequenced A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1A.5a.1. Among 410 sequenced influenza A(H3N2) viruses, all but eight belonged to clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. DISCUSSION: Despite antigenic mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains for influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09, 2021-2022 VE estimates against circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were the highest within the I-MOVE network since the 2009 influenza pandemic. VE against A(H3N2) was lower than A(H1N1)pdm09, but at least one in five individuals vaccinated against influenza were protected against presentation to primary care with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Age-specific associations between underlying health conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among confirmed COVID-19 cases: a multi-country study based on surveillance data, June to December 2020.

BackgroundUnderlying conditions are risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes but evidence is limited about how risks differ with age.AimWe sought to estimate age-specific associations between underlying conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among COVID-19 cases.MethodsWe analysed case-based COVID-19 data submitted to The European Surveillance System between 2 June and 13 December 2020 by nine European countries. Eleven underlying conditions among cases with only one condition and the number of underlying conditions among multimorbid cases were used as exposures. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using 39 different age-adjusted and age-interaction multivariable logistic regression models, with marginal means from the latter used to estimate probabilities of severe outcome for each condition-age group combination.ResultsCancer, cardiac disorder, diabetes, immunodeficiency, kidney, liver and lung disease, neurological disorders and obesity were associated with elevated risk (aOR: 1.5-5.6) of hospitalisation and death, after controlling for age, sex, reporting period and country. As age increased, age-specific aOR were lower and predicted probabilities higher. However, for some conditions, predicted probabilities were at least as high in younger individuals with the condition as in older cases without it. In multimorbid patients, the aOR for severe disease increased with number of conditions for all outcomes and in all age groups.ConclusionWhile supporting age-based vaccine roll-out, our findings could inform a more nuanced, age- and condition-specific approach to vaccine prioritisation. This is relevant as countries consider vaccination of younger people, boosters and dosing intervals in response to vaccine escape variants.

Assistive technologies are central to the realization of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

PURPOSE: In this paper, we highlight examples of how AT may play a role in realizing each of the fundamental rights affirmed in the UNCRPD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted an indicative literature search for relevant literature to each of the substantive articles of the CRPD. RESULTS: Assistive technology plays a critical role in achieving the rights affirmed by the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring adequate provision of AT by states parties is critical to the progressive realization of the rights of persons with disabilities and to fulfilling commitments made by states parties upon ratification of the CRPD.Implications for rehabilitationAssistive technology (AT) is critical to enable full participation of persons with disability in society and the achievement of rights affirmed by the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.Governments and other key stakeholders should endeavour to improve access to AT through inclusive, evidence-informed programs and services.Advocacy is required to improve access to AT through universal health coverage.

Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021.

IntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.

Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. RESULTS: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. CONCLUSION: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.

Establishing a COVID-19 pandemic severity assessment surveillance system in Ireland.

We developed a COVID-19 pandemic severity assessment (PSA) monitoring system in Ireland, in order to inform and improve public health preparedness, response and recovery. The system based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Pandemic Influenza Severity Assessment (PISA) project included a panel of surveillance parameters for the following indicators: transmissibility, impact and disease severity. Age-specific thresholds were established for each parameter and data visualised using heat maps. The findings from the first pandemic wave in Ireland have shown that the WHO PISA system can be adapted for COVID-19, providing a standardised tool for early warning and monitoring pandemic severity.

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021.

We measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at primary care/outpatient level among adults ≥ 65 years old using a multicentre test-negative design in eight European countries. We included 592 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4,372 test-negative controls in the main analysis. The VE was 62% (95% CI: 45-74) for one dose only and 89% (95% CI: 79-94) for complete vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines provide good protection against COVID-19 presentation at primary care/outpatient level, particularly among fully vaccinated individuals.

Underlying conditions and risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality among those with COVID-19 in Ireland: A national surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: To date, over 2 million people worldwide have died with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To describe the experience in Ireland, this study examined associations between underlying conditions and the following outcomes: mortality, admission to hospital or admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) among those infected with COVID-19. METHODS: This study used data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland and included confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the first wave of the pandemic between March and July 2020. Two cohorts were included: all cases (community and hospital) and hospital admissions only. For all cases, health outcome data included mortality and hospitalisation. For hospitalised cases, outcome data included mortality and ICU admission. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between underlying conditions and outcomes across both cohorts. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). FINDINGS: There were 19,789 cases included in analysis, which encompassed 1,476 (7.5%) deaths, 2,811 (14.2%) hospitalisations, and 438 (2.2%) ICU admissions of whom 90 (20.5%) died. Significantly higher risk of mortality, hospitalisation and ICU admission was associated with having chronic heart disease, a BMI ≥40kg/m2 and male sex. Additionally, diagnosis of a chronic neurological condition (OR 1.41; 95%CI:1.17, 1.69), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.74; 95%CI:1.35, 2.24) and cancer (OR 2.77; 95%CI:2.21, 3.47) were significantly associated with higher risk of mortality among all cases, with similar patterns of association observed for mortality among hospitalised cases. INTERPRETATION: The identification of underlying conditions among COVID-19 cases may help identify those at highest risk of the worst health outcomes and inform preventive strategies to improve outcomes. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Health Service Executive, Health Protection Surveillance Centre. KEB and MM are funded by the Health Research Board (RL-15-1579 and EIA-2019-012 respectively).